Marco Rubio wants Americans to “wake up”.
China is already in conflict with the United States, warns the Republican senator from Florida. We just haven’t realized it yet.
And even when Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine shows that aggressive wars are not a relic of the past – the “return of history”, Rubio calls it – he worries that China’s communist rulers pose a more insidious, long-term threat to American peace. and prosperity and that the threat is not treated with the seriousness it deserves.
“There is no point in pretending not to be an opponent,” Rubio said in an interview. “Their goal is to rise at the expense of the United States.”
As a senior Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Rubio has access to the latest insights from US spy agencies. And what he saw about China’s growing reach alarmed him: a campaign of economic espionage and infiltration into American institutions; the rapid accumulation of nuclear and conventional forces that threaten Taiwan; a growing disinformation machine that seeks to undermine the United States around the world.
These fears are widely shared by Democrats in Washington. Since taking office, the Biden administration has taken steps to strengthen America’s alliances in Asia, reorient NATO to oppose China, approve arms sales to Taiwan for nearly $ 1 billion, hit Chinese officials with sanctions and sharply criticize policies and trade practices. of China in the field of human rights. Congress is busy finalizing the Competition Act, a huge piece of legislation that both sides consider vital to China’s opposition. But if Republicans take control of Congress in November, they will be in a position to push for an even tougher line.
On Tuesday, Rubio will address the conservative Heritage Foundation, in which he intends to argue that “Beijing’s military power, ideological challenge to democracy, technological ambitions and influence on the world market pose an even more serious and systematic threat than the Soviet Union ever he did. “
Winning this conflict has blinded Americans to the dark reality of totalitarianism, according to Rubio. “For the past three decades, we have forgotten that human nature is prone to a thirst for dominance,” said some of his remarks to The New York Times. “The desire of the strong to conquer, enslave and control the weaker than themselves.”
What America needs above all else, Rubio argues, is “unity and clarity about the threat we face.”
The speech is a strong entry into the debate in Washington and among Republicans on how to deal with Beijing. What emphasis should US leaders place on Russia against China? Is China an adversary we must fight, or just a fierce competitor? Is the United States losing an advantage? And if so, what should be done about it?
Rubio’s own Twitter channel embodies competing demands on the attention of politicians. Even as he refined his arguments for China, he tweeted live his insights into the war in Ukraine.
“Republicans are struggling whether and how to prioritize these threats,” said Elbridge Colby, a senior defense official in the Trump administration. “But the truth is, we won’t just turn the clock until 1989 and everything will be like the old days.”
Driving to overcome the hawks
Republicans may be divided over Russia – between the main hawks of national security and a smaller faction that admires Putin’s alleged tenacity and his defense of traditional values - but criticism of China is a sure political winner on the right.
In a poll last year, nearly half of Americans said they saw China as the United States’ biggest enemy, twice as many as in 2020. In a survey by the Chicago Board of Global Affairs last year, 64 percent Republicans said the United States should try to curb China’s rise, while 60 percent of Democrats said they preferred cooperation and commitment.
“Republicans are very negative about China, more so than Democrats,” said Glenn Bolger, a Republican sociologist. He noted that the coronavirus pandemic has sparked growing skepticism about China and its role in the world.
China is already proving to be a powerful campaign problem in the interim mandates in 2022, as Republican politicians try to outdo each other in primary elections for Congress. In the states of the Midwest, plagued by job losses, this is a matter of domestic policy, as well as national security concerns.
In Ohio, Mike Gibbons, a businessman who led the Republican primary in the Senate in some polls, dismisses claims that he once preferred to outsource jobs in China.
In the race for the Senate of Pennsylvania, David McCormick, former executive director of hedge funds, and Mehmet Oz, the famous doctor, exchanged accusations about who is more tainted than Beijing.
For Rubio, his first task is to be re-elected to Florida this year. But he ran for president once, and allies expect he can do it again. So his attempt to mark China will certainly raise questions about his ambitions for 2024.
A rival on which the United States is highly dependent
If China is a more serious geopolitical threat than the Soviet Union, it is also more complex.
In 2020 alone, Americans traded more than $ 600 billion worth of goods and services with China, surpassing the amount the United States had ever exchanged with the Soviets. The United States also depends on China for raw materials such as rare earth minerals used in everything from cell phones to semiconductors to car batteries. And Beijing’s cooperation is essential to making progress on climate change, Biden officials said.
In the event of a war for Taiwan, Rubio said, “It will not be as easy to sanction China as it is to sanction Putin.” Not only can China have much bigger military and financial muscles than Russia, but American elites are more deeply compromised by their ties to Beijing, he said.
“China has been very effective in replacing the US corporate sector as its lobbyists,” Rubio said. This is something he says he experienced firsthand when he called for sanctions over China’s treatment of its Muslim minority.
The administration opposes labeling China as an outspoken enemy, although it has stepped up criticism of the Chinese government. Speaking to the UN General Assembly last year, President Biden said: “We are not looking for a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs.
But the actions of the White House suggest otherwise. The budget he published today mentioned China 12 times, calling the country a “pace challenge”. It requires a $ 773 billion Pentagon budget, a record that overshadows the Trump administration’s military spending.
Firm about crime. The budget contains billions of requests for federal law enforcement, including $ 17.4 billion to fight violent crime and more than $ 30 billion in grants to state and local police departments. There is also a 5% increase for various internal security initiatives. As Katie Banner points out, the message here is quite simple: Biden doesn’t want to deprive the police.
Firmly in defense. In total, Biden wants $ 813.3 billion in national security spending, a 4% increase over 2022. Much of the new money will go to counter threats from China, Iran and Russia. As Michael Sheare points out, this is far from the peace dividend that progressives expect from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Strictly to the rich. Biden is proposing a minimum tax on American households worth more than $ 100 million, an idea in line with what progressives such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren support. Zolan Kano-Youngs breaks it here.
Thanks for reading. I’ll see you tomorrow.
“Blake and Leah.”
Is there something you think we are missing? Something you want to see more? We look forward to hearing from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.