Avatar: Water Road
Courtesy: The Disney Company.
Disney James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” took in an estimated $56 million during its second weekend in theaters, which is a 58% drop from its debut.
Declines in ticket sales are common for blockbuster titles, with most seeing a 50% to 70% decline. This metric, known as the second-week decline, is often used as an indicator of whether a film will outlive at the box office or may fade quickly.
Films that drop below 50% are expected to have strong running runs, while ticket sales that reach 70% are likely to see sharp declines as the film fades from the public eye.
“Avatar: The Way of Water’s second weekend drop puts it right where it needs to be as this performance will set the tone for the film’s continued box office journey,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior. Media analyst at Comscore.
Box office analysts noted that cold winter weather and storms over the Christmas weekend would likely slow ticket sales domestically.
In addition, international ticket sales continue to thrive. The second week decline for markets outside the US and Canada was 43.9%. “The Way of Water” was always expected to generate at least 70% of its box office take from international ticket sales and that’s exactly where the split is as of Sunday.
“The Way of Water” has generated $855 million in worldwide ticket sales since December 3. 16th Edition – $254 million domestically and $601 million from the international markets. Presently, it is the fifth highest-grossing movie released in 2022.
Basic And Skydance’s Top Gun: Maverick is the current leader with $1.48 billion worldwide, followed by universal “Jurassic World: Dominion” ($1 billion), Disney and Marvel Studios’ “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” ($952 million) and Universal and Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru ($939 million).
“The Way of Water” is less than half of what Cameron said the film would need to make in order to be considered profitable. Despite dwindling word of mouth, which focused on stunning visuals interrupted by a lackluster plot, the “Avatar” sequel has room to run at the box office.
The next blockbuster – Disney and Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” – isn’t hitting theaters until February 4th. 17, leaving “Water Road” a long run at the box office without stiff competition.
“January is absent from direct competition against the film,” said Sean Robbins, senior analyst at BoxOffice.com. “This is when an Avatar sequel can make up for any perceived loss toward reaching long-term expectations, if it is ever going to do so.”
“We live in a world where the craving for instant gratification leads to early results being used as the ultimate measure of a film’s success,” he said. “Realistically, sometimes it makes sense, but sometimes it doesn’t. This is one of the last cases.”
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor for “Jurassic World: Dominion” and “Minions: The Rise of Gru.”